David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+142/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 59.7% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 3.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in football.

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