David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.0% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a stellar 89.0% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers profile as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
David Montgomery's receiving talent has worsened this year, compiling a mere 1.7 yards per game vs 3.3 last year.

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