David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-148).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 3.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
David Montgomery has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 86.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.