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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

David Montgomery's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 69.7% to 100.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.

The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

David Montgomery has accrued a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 16th percentile among running backs.

David Montgomery's 7.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a remarkable decline in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 9.3% mark.

Since the start of last season, the strong Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed a mere 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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