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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

David Montgomery ranks in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with a remarkable 0.9% of his team's air yards accumulated.

David Montgomery ranks as one of the top RBs in the NFL at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a stellar 10.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 85th percentile.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.6%) versus RBs since the start of last season (87.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 4-point favorite in this week's game.

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.2 per game) since the start of last season.

David Montgomery grades out as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among running backs, hauling in just 71.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 17th percentile.

The Cardinals pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.99 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

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