David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The projections expect David Montgomery to garner 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
David Montgomery has been among the leading running backs in football at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a terrific 9.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
David Montgomery's 7.0% Target% this season indicates a a noteworthy regression in his passing attack volume over last season's 12.1% figure.
When talking about air yards, David Montgomery ranks in just the 22nd percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -2.0 per game.
David Montgomery's 11.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a a significant decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 20.0 mark.

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