David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, David Montgomery is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 78th percentile among RBs with 3.2 targets.
While David Montgomery has received 3.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's passing attack in this contest at 10.0%.
David Montgomery has compiled a staggering 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a mere 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-fewest in the league.
Since the start of last season, the tough Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a mere 5.5 yards.