David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has run a route on 54.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
David Montgomery has totaled a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 18.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
David Montgomery has been one of the best possession receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a stellar 88.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.