David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has notched a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the best pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 20.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
David Montgomery has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in an impressive 88.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Lions have been the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this week (6.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.1% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.