David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.
David Montgomery's skills in generating extra yardage have improved this year, notching 14.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 8.29 rate last year.
The Packers pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
David Montgomery has been used less as a potential target this year (36.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (56.7%).
David Montgomery's 11.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year's 20.0 figure.

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