David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
With a terrific 9.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, David Montgomery rates among the top running backs in the pass game in the NFL in the open field.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
David Montgomery's 39.2% Route Participation Rate this season signifies an impressive decline in his passing attack usage over last season's 56.7% mark.
David Montgomery has notched a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile when it comes to RBs.
David Montgomery's 12.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a noteable decline in his receiving talent over last year's 20.0 rate.
David Montgomery's 65.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last year's 88.0% rate.

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