David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
David Montgomery has totaled a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 20.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (6.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.