David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 86.8% to 93.5%.
David Montgomery's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 9.50 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.50 figure last year.
David Montgomery's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 12.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 7.10 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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