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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

David Montgomery has run a route on 54.7% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.

David Montgomery's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 86.8% to 90.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.

David Montgomery has notched a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 22nd percentile among RBs.

The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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