David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) to RBs this year.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.