David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

David Montgomery has run a route on 57.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 3.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has compiled a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 24.0 yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.