David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 3.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has compiled a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, allowing 5.37 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in the NFL.