David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
David Montgomery has run a route on 58.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 23.0) versus running backs this year.

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