David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 59.7% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 3.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has compiled a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 22.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in football.