David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

reorder

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 59.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has posted a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery has been among the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 21.0 yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
David Montgomery has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, catching an impressive 85.1% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.