David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 58.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has put up a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (73.4%) to RBs this year (73.4%).

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