David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+107/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
David Montgomery has run a route on 56.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, hauling in an impressive 88.2% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.
David Montgomery's pass-game effectiveness has improved this year, notching 8.76 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.50 rate last year.
David Montgomery's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 11.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 7.10 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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