David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 3.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has posted a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has been among the best RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 24.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, conceding 5.24 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.

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