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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a massive 59.3 per game on average).

The Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

Out of all RBs, David Montgomery ranks in the 78th percentile for carries this year, making up 41.0% of the workload in his team's ground game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

The projections expect the Lions as the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 39.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's DT corps has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in football.

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