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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Carries
Player Prop Week 19

Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is implied by the Lions being a 3-point favorite this week.

With a 41.4% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most run-heavy team in football has been the Detroit Lions.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).

In regards to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

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