David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:32 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect David Montgomery to accumulate 15.4 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this year (59.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (39.4%).

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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