David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football last year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
While David Montgomery has received 61.0% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Detroit's ground game in this week's game at 45.9%.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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