David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 14.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has been much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this year (46.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (74.1%).

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