David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 18.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been a less important option in his team's running game this year (43.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).
The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.