David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:50 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 14.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.6% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.