David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 14.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been a less important option in his offense's run game this season (45.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (74.1%).
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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