David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 17.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this year (42.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (74.1%).