David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:16 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 13.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 27th-worst group of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).

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