David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 14.3 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (74.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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