David Bell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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David Bell

NFL · Player Props

David Bell

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

David Bell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 62.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
David Bell's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 25th percentile for WRs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. wideouts this year (61.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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