David Bell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Bell

NFL · Player Props

David Bell

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

David Bell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects David Bell to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this week (5.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.96 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.

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