David Bell Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Bell

NFL · Player Props

David Bell

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

David Bell Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+435/-992).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +435.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Bell to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (9.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Bell has compiled a mere 14.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 23rd percentile among WRs.
David Bell's 10.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 20th percentile for WRs.
David Bell grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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