Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-185/+155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
This week, Davante Adams is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.8 targets.
Davante Adams's 82.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 75.0.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
With a poor 59.5% Adjusted Catch% (23rd percentile) this year, Davante Adams ranks among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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