Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Davante Adams to total 11.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Davante Adams's 82.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 75.0.
The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.
With a subpar 58.5% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) this year, Davante Adams ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among WRs.

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