Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to total 11.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams's 82.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wideouts.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Davante Adams's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 6.1 yards per game compared to 7.4 last year.
Davante Adams's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.3% to 62.7%.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.