Davante Adams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+139/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Davante Adams has posted significantly more air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).
Davante Adams's 73.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wide receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Davante Adams grades out in the 97th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.71 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 5th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 1.12 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (26.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (32.0% in games he has played).
Davante Adams's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 59.2%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) vs. wideouts this year (64.0%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.