Davante Adams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Davante Adams has notched significantly more air yards this season (119.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).
Davante Adams's 82.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wideouts.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Davante Adams grades out in the 97th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.83 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to be a less important option in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (30.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.1% in games he has played).
Davante Adams's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.3% to 62.7%.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.