Davante Adams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
Davante Adams has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 38.5% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Davante Adams has accrued a whopping 105.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams's 76.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for wideouts.
Davante Adams ranks in the 98th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.68 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Davante Adams's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.3% to 54.3%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.