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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (28.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.2% in games he has played).

Davante Adams has accrued significantly more air yards this year (115.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).

Davante Adams's 74.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for wideouts.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

Davante Adams's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.8% to 62.9%.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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