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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-109/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Davante Adams has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.9% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Davante Adams has compiled far more air yards this season (119.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

Davante Adams's 71.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 97th percentile for wideouts.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Davante Adams's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 60.8%.

The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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