Davante Adams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Davante Adams has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.3% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams has accrued far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).
Davante Adams's 79.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
Davante Adams's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 60.0%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.6%) vs. wideouts this year (61.6%).
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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