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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +143.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
  • Davante Adams has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.3% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Davante Adams has accrued far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).
  • Davante Adams's 79.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
  • Davante Adams's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 60.0%.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.6%) vs. wideouts this year (61.6%).
  • The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.
  • The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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