Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to total 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Darren Waller's 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for tight ends.
Darren Waller has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
The Seahawks safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Darren Waller's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 61.4%.
The Seahawks pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.3%).