Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to notch 8.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a more important option in his team's air attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.8% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has been among the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.