Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
Darren Waller has run a route on 86.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to notch 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (66.1%).
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.