Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-162).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to notch 4.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Darren Waller's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 57.2% to 71.3%.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Darren Waller's 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 56.5.
Darren Waller's receiving talent has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 3.9 yards per game vs 4.9 last season.